Wallet digest

active

Activity score

63/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$1.2K

Total PnL

$-2.6K

Realised

$-8.87

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 12

YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5809 shares @ 20.0¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$676.80
$-483.06
YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2400 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$303.60
$87.60
NO
Will Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run before 2027?
108 shares @ 92.2¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$105.26
$5.26
NO
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?
85 shares @ 94.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$83.23
$3.23
NO
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?
52 shares @ 95.5¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$50.98
$0.98
YES
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
5386 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026
$0.00
$-792.33
NO
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
1097 shares @ 47.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026
$0.00
$-520.39
YES
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
750 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-262.50
NO
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
714 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.09Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.10Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.10Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.10Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.10Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.09Jul 10, 00:11 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry33 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk73 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 1
Avg trade size: $212.46
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:13:23 UTC·src:Polymarket Data