Happy-Go-Lucky-Body
0x50bf938a81e4d9d990a96a7243ba4588c06c33e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$114.99
Total PnL
$-15.2K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?
20 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$20.14
$0.04
- NO
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?
13 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$12.67
$0.27
- NO
Will Mali win on 2025-12-29?
10 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$10.00
$6.40
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: Other
8 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.10
$0.00
- NO
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$7.41
$0.01
- NO
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election?
6 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$6.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
6 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$5.89
$0.09
- NO
Will the New Social Contract win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
6 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.61
$0.01
- NO
Will Franck Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2025$5.30
$0.01
- NO
Will the Volt Netherlands win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.30
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Mali win on 2025-12-29?$3.60Dec 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?$4.30Nov 15, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?$7.40Nov 15, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Franck Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election?$5.30Oct 3, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Volt Netherlands win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$5.30Oct 3, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$4.60Sep 23, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the New Social Contract win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$5.60Sep 23, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gnangbo Kacou win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election?$2.20Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$5.00Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill SV win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?$2.60Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP dip to $1.50 in August?$3.02Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill V win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?$4.10Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $80 in July?$4.43Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rodríguez and Medina advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?$5.13Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $60K in July?$7.60Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?$9.08Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5500 August 11–17?$11.60Sep 23, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $200K in September?$20.10Sep 2, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rodríguez and Medina advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?$5.10Aug 17, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $5500 August 11–17?$11.59Aug 17, 14:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $8.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 14:11 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 28, 19:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.