Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$1.12

Total PnL

$-99.92

Realised

$-2.47

Win rate

72 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 73

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026
$1.12
$0.12
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
4 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.01Aug 18, 10:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.08Aug 18, 10:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.01Aug 18, 09:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.03Aug 18, 09:31 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.16Aug 18, 09:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.02Aug 18, 09:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.04Aug 18, 09:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.03Aug 18, 09:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.01Aug 18, 09:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.01Aug 18, 08:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.06Aug 18, 08:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.01Aug 18, 08:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.06Aug 18, 08:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.01Aug 18, 08:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$1.16Aug 17, 22:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$1.01Aug 17, 22:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$1.01Aug 17, 22:38 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$1.04Aug 17, 22:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$1.01Aug 17, 22:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$1.01Aug 17, 22:27 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

53/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 72 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

72 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry34 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk47 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 28
Avg trade size: $1.02
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 17, 19:27 UTC
Last active: Aug 18, 10:07 UTC
Win rate sample: 72 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:36:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data