Soupy-Estrogen
0x511c94f67f5b4df2f5e1ba716401b8dc23685c78
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-96.58
Realised
$-1.93
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
18150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-18.15
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
8750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?
298 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 19?
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$18.15Mar 18, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$35.00Mar 18, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$4.57Mar 10, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$5.00Mar 10, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?$10.00Mar 9, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$10.00Mar 9, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$8.50Mar 9, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$9.75Mar 9, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$10.26Mar 9, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?$11.11Mar 9, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?$14.09Mar 9, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?$12.86Mar 9, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?$16.15Mar 9, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$8.76Mar 8, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$10.00Mar 8, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$10.00Mar 8, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?$10.00Mar 5, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?$10.00Mar 5, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?$10.00Mar 5, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?$10.00Mar 5, 15:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $6.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 22:34 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 13:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.