Wallet profile

Grumpy-Clarity

0x513e7b81876d5b25682a1b2febc0a423800fb09c

activity 40/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

40/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

21

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-546.67

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 21

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
  • TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$39.55Jul 11, 10:13 UTC
  • TRADESELLWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$39.09Jul 11, 10:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jun 26, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jun 25, 00:16 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
pass

2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.

Resolved-only track record
block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity17 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry5 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk53 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
2
Avg trade size
$39.32
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 26, 00:13 UTC
Last active
Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
Win rate sample
0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 12:01:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Data