Ignorant-Bargain
0x5149e9c06ebb72221eec72f2c09c4c30c4e96c3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-221.89
Realised
$12.71
Win rate
94%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
1267 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
83 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
59 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
44 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
32 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.72
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
31 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
31 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.88
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$0.99Jun 24, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.06Jun 24, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.19Jun 24, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.04Jun 24, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.82Jun 24, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.06Jun 24, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$2.22Jun 24, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.05Jun 24, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$0.60Jun 24, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.04Jun 24, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$0.91Jun 24, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.04Jun 24, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.07Jun 24, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.05Jun 24, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$0.01Jun 24, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.12Jun 24, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.16Jun 24, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$4.81Jun 24, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.19Jun 24, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$6.38Jun 24, 20:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 21:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.