Wallet digest

active

Activity score

49/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$75.47

Total PnL

$-28.63

Realised

$-2.37

Win rate

39 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 39

OVER
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
6 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$5.94
$2.79
NO
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime?
6 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$5.93
$2.73
OVER
FC Flora vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 2.5
6 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$5.88
$2.53
UNDER
Paraguay vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$5.81
$2.21
UNDER
Qairat FK vs. FK Sutjeska Nikšić: O/U 3.5
6 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$5.79
$2.14
NONGSHIM REDFORCE
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
6 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$5.72
$0.57
NO
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?
6 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$5.71
$1.71
NO
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$5.60
$0.90
NO
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Morocco?
6 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$5.58
$0.78
NO
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$5.54
$0.89

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 12?$1.27Jul 11, 03:04 UTC
TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime?$3.27Jul 11, 01:43 UTC
TRADEBUYMap 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5$3.12Jul 11, 00:22 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 17?$1.27Jul 10, 23:44 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 12?$1.27Jul 10, 22:41 UTC
TRADESELLWill Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.97Jul 10, 19:34 UTC
TRADESELLSpain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half$4.49Jul 10, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYMap 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$3.22Jul 10, 08:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half$4.64Jul 10, 06:52 UTC
TRADEBUYMap 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$3.12Jul 10, 04:52 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.25Jul 10, 00:32 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 10?$1.26Jul 9, 19:59 UTC
TRADEBUYMap 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5$3.09Jul 9, 19:02 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 15?$1.94Jul 9, 03:47 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 15?$1.26Jul 9, 03:46 UTC
TRADESELLSpain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half$4.41Jul 8, 20:51 UTC
TRADESELLWill FC Ballkani win on 2026-07-08?$3.64Jul 8, 17:22 UTC
TRADEBUYWill FC Ballkani win on 2026-07-08?$3.79Jul 8, 17:22 UTC
TRADESELLWill Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani end in a draw?$4.41Jul 8, 17:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Connah's Quay Nomads FC vs. FC Ballkani end in a draw?$4.53Jul 8, 17:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 39 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

39 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $3.68
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 6, 21:12 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 03:04 UTC
Win rate sample: 39 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:31:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data