Demanding-Diaphragm
0x515a389aee122277e6a0e18e17001fd9b6a51055
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?
8067 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-176.33
- YES
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
7449 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-3.8K
- YES
Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?
3624 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-371.96
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?
1100 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-210.00
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?
1000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
992 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-36.96
- NO
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?
487 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-18.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$2.00Jan 28, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$2.00Jan 27, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLZama auction clearing price above $0.05?$40.00Jan 25, 02:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$600.00Jan 24, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYZama auction clearing price above $0.05?$30.00Jan 23, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?$510.00Jan 23, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?$480.00Jan 22, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$204.58Jan 19, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$137.96Jan 19, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$25.95Jan 19, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$107.26Jan 19, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$34.60Jan 19, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?$8.65Jan 19, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMOver $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?$150.00Jan 14, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMOver $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?$300.00Jan 14, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?$0.75Jan 10, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?$9.00Jan 10, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?$36.00Jan 10, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?$4.00Jan 10, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?$8.00Jan 10, 15:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $44.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 10, 09:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 28, 07:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.