Foolhardy-Direction
0x515ca60f91f49e5e4aa23ab60a6edec3c3917587
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
127
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$37.60
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?
1616 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-47.13
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11?
1452 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-30.02
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11?
579 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-23.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or higher on May 7?
545 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.53
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10?
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15?
478 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-130.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C or below on April 23?
474 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.69
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
400 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-15.86
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10?
382 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-19.08
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on May 5?
355 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 20?$0.00Jul 24, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 20?$0.00Jul 21, 14:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 20?$12.59Jul 21, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$19.05Jul 20, 23:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 20?$20.92Jul 20, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 20?$38.26Jul 20, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 20?$21.76Jul 19, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 20?$21.76Jul 19, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 20?$12.80Jul 19, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 20?$11.75Jul 19, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 20?$10.90Jul 19, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 20?$21.00Jul 19, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 20?$10.94Jul 19, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 20?$11.02Jul 19, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 20?$22.11Jul 19, 17:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?$21.47Jul 18, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 18?$22.28Jul 18, 18:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on July 18?$24.14Jul 18, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on July 18?$14.76Jul 18, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on July 18?$9.27Jul 17, 22:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $12.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 21:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 21:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.