0x515f880c38a64b5c1b89236189b08fc15d5ba606
0x515f880c38a64b5c1b89236189b08fc15d5ba606
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$477.17
Total PnL
$-592.07
Realised
$-303.38
Win rate
0%
104 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 22?
99 shares @ 68.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$70.78
$3.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 22?
120 shares @ 57.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$64.75
$-3.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 22?
75 shares @ 63.9¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$51.74
$3.81
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 22?
82 shares @ 58.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$48.79
$1.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 22?
84 shares @ 56.3¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$45.36
$-1.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?
77 shares @ 61.1¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$42.73
$-4.32
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 23?
21 shares @ 68.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.75
$3.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 23?
26 shares @ 62.7¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.03
$0.74
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 22?
32 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$16.80
$-0.48
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 22?
20 shares @ 63.5¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$16.00
$3.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?$0.06Jul 22, 00:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?$0.16Jul 22, 00:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?$0.64Jul 22, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?$0.16Jul 22, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 22?$4.01Jul 22, 00:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.06Jul 21, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$1.80Jul 21, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.75Jul 21, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.14Jul 21, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$1.80Jul 21, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.06Jul 21, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.72Jul 21, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$1.00Jul 21, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.15Jul 21, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$1.92Jul 21, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$2.18Jul 21, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.23Jul 21, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$3.36Jul 21, 21:02 UTC
- REWARD$5.33Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 22?$8.78Jul 21, 18:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 104 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
104 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 13:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 104 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.