Authentic-Covariate
0x5164dd14088a567e2919170abc7ce7ee5031abf5
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-476.98
Realised
$4.18
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
963 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
500 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-108.75
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
252 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-81.80
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 3PM ET
198 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 4PM ET
150 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 7PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
62 shares @ 24.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-15.42
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
61 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.73Jul 19, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$113.00Jul 11, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$21.90Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$13.03Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.74Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.00Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.00Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$15.76Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.04Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.00Apr 23, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$8.87Apr 23, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$2.99Apr 23, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$9.29Apr 23, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$7.83Apr 23, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.59Apr 23, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$4.67Apr 23, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.79Apr 23, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$2.74Apr 23, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.82Apr 23, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.80Apr 23, 21:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $8.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 23, 10:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 17:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.