Careful-Honoree
0x517e693532ec5b6af2a39a0ec702021aecf16c83
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-422.35
Realised
$-12.64
Win rate
0%
111 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
13 shares @ 77.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 4?
13 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
13 shares @ 70.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.75
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
13 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
13 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
12 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-9.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 5?
12 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.97
- UP
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
12 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.97
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
12 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.81
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?$2.01Jul 7, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 6?$4.05Jul 7, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 6?$3.29Jul 6, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 6?$2.48Jul 6, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 6?$3.04Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 6?$2.88Jul 6, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?$1.56Jul 5, 21:35 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMFrance to score first vs. Paraguay?$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.00Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$4.55Jul 5, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kawkab AC win on 2026-07-05?$3.03Jul 5, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$2.22Jul 5, 21:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 111 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
111 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $2.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 03:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 01:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 111 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.