Modern-Clockwork
0x518fb5ab20ff8b84ec20c9c4aa60a411a62bfbc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$27.87
Total PnL
$-304.19
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$10.29
$5.11
- NO
Will Trump post "Department of Defense" or "DoD" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$8.00
$2.88
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?
352 shares @ 50.0¢·now 1.2¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$4.22
$-171.78
- YES
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$1.43
$0.47
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.38
$0.42
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
1 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.31
$0.35
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.24
$0.28
- YES
Will Binance be accused of insider trading?
610 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15?
458 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
69 shares @ 28.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$48.00Jul 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$112.27Jul 16, 05:51 UTC
- SPLITWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$200.00Jul 16, 03:27 UTC
- SPLITWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$200.00Jul 16, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$20.00Mar 10, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9?$5.00Mar 10, 02:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill FaZe Clan qualify to the Main Event of ESL Pro League Season 23?$10.00Mar 10, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Department of Defense" or "DoD" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)$5.12Mar 9, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FaZe Clan qualify to the Main Event of ESL Pro League Season 23?$5.30Mar 9, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSurf FDV above $50M one day after launch?$5.18Mar 9, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9?$2.25Mar 9, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9?$4.50Mar 9, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 9?$3.00Mar 9, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.96Mar 5, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$2.00Mar 5, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.95Mar 5, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$2.00Mar 5, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.95Mar 5, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$2.00Mar 5, 03:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$3.90Mar 5, 03:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $5.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 11:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 05:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.