Repentant-Confirmation
0x5195a3d459a40e6503ccf19798f3cd9551b0d864
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-29.2K
Realised
$-949.48
Win rate
1%
94 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
777 shares @ 50.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$777.05
$383.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
516 shares @ 54.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$516.30
$233.48
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
438 shares @ 36.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$438.22
$277.78
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
1130 shares @ 68.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-778.83
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
1055 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-464.23
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
999 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-19.97
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
952 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-30.43
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
927 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-18.52
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
904 shares @ 69.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-629.91
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
887 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-17.73
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.00Aug 18, 20:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$92.03Aug 18, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.96Aug 18, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.02Aug 18, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.04Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$8.32Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.28Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.20Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.45Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$7.56Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.17Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.90Aug 18, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.85Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$7.56Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$7.56Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$4.18Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$18.00Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$0.00Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$66.64Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$0.00Aug 18, 20:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 94 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
94 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 19:41 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 20:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 94 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.