Reflecting-Excuse
0x5199c727eee5e7753c92adbdc3e62593badcc819
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$166.92
Total PnL
$-5.70
Realised
$-1.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?
30 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.86
$0.01
- NO
Will Washington Nationals win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
27 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$26.74
$-0.12
- NO
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
25 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.96
$0.01
- NO
Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
25 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$24.90
$-0.05
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
25 shares @ 99.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$24.24
$-0.71
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?
23 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$23.00
$0.18
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
380 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.79
$-0.57
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.90
$-1.10
- YES
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
360 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.52
$-2.16
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?$28.97Jun 13, 11:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.23Jun 12, 06:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.68Jun 12, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.71Jun 12, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.60Jun 12, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.06Jun 12, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.66Jun 12, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.67Jun 12, 03:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.24Jun 12, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$24.87Jun 11, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.47Jun 10, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$4.04Jun 10, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.90Jun 10, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.91Jun 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$2.28Jun 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$8.77Jun 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$5.99Jun 10, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$2.94Jun 9, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$2.31Jun 9, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?$4.27Jun 9, 11:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $11.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 05:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 11:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.