Wallet digest

active

Activity score

38/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-525.91

Realised

$-14.89

Win rate

20%

5 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
542 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
457 shares @ 30.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026
$0.00
$-141.31
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
101 shares @ 72.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-73.64
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-16.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
100 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-53.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-15.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
79 shares @ 63.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-49.73
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
77 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
56 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-20.55
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
38 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.07Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$23.73Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.50Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.29Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.53Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$19.48Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.48Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$19.36Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.73Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.29Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$42.09Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$36.93Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$24.15Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$65.97May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.22May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$85.63May 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$194.31May 28, 00:35 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31?$2.56May 27, 01:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$5.94May 27, 01:15 UTC
TRADESELLWill Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$4.68May 27, 01:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

29/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

20% win rate over 5 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity67 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence17 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk50 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $15.59
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 27, 01:11 UTC
Last active: Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 5 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:32:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data