Lumpy-Sweatshop
0x519ed493ad584b22707eb1b0709cee1a589dedbd
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$117.13
Total PnL
$-545.50
Realised
$-112.09
Win rate
15%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
129 shares @ 23.3¢·now 31.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.91
$10.91
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
65 shares @ 23.0¢·now 49.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.05
$17.05
- YES
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
66 shares @ 34.6¢·now 26.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$17.62
$-5.38
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
117 shares @ 25.5¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.81
$-21.19
- YES
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
224 shares @ 13.4¢·now 3.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.07
$-22.93
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 34.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$3.53
$2.27
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
16 shares @ 31.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.50
$-2.50
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
10 shares @ 19.7¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.41
$-0.64
- YES
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
73 shares @ 9.6¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.09
$-5.91
- YES
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 42.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.71
$-4.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?$8.00Jun 18, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$2.04Jun 15, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$1.13Jun 14, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$0.52Jun 14, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$0.39Jun 14, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$0.36Jun 14, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$5.17Jun 14, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$2.00Jun 14, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?$10.00Jun 14, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$6.71Jun 14, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$20.00Jun 11, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$1.92Jun 11, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.62Jun 11, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?$3.12Jun 11, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$2.67Jun 11, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$7.68Jun 11, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$13.08Jun 11, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$1.04Jun 10, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$5.00Jun 10, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$5.00Jun 10, 22:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 11:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 15:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.