Quiet-Chard
0x51d04311700d85e4ae9d61e73080b25efaaca690
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$3.21
Total PnL
$-3.97
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 19?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- NO
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.06
$0.00
- YES
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- YES
Will exactly 57 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.67
- YES
Will Bobby Dodge win TN-7 Special Election?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-0.64
- YES
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.54
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.54
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 2 be less than 1,750,000?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.53
- YES
Will Whatnot: Shop, Sell, Collect be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.52
- NO
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 19?$8.84Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 19?$10.00Jun 18, 04:18 UTC
- REDEEMBank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$1.08Jun 18, 04:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June 7?$1.08Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?$1.08Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on June 7?$1.09Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?$6.34Jun 6, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?$7.40Jun 6, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on June 7?$6.91Jun 6, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on June 7?$8.00Jun 6, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$8.49Jun 6, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$9.60Jun 6, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June 7?$9.41Jun 6, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June 7?$10.50Jun 6, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?$10.40Jun 6, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?$11.50Jun 6, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?$10.97Jun 6, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?$12.00Jun 6, 08:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?$1.06Apr 18, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMPorsche Tennis Grand Prix: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Linda Noskova$1.09Apr 18, 17:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $7.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 08:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 04:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.