Improbable-Lobby
0x51dc85f0befe2d626b1bd12b78836e26f3029ecd
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-176.31
Realised
$-6.65
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?
769 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-37.08
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?
344 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-47.04
- YES
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31?
283 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-27.62
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
52 shares @ 38.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?
37 shares @ 37.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-13.76
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
30 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-14.61
- YES
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?
26 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-9.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?$17.07Nov 17, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by March 31?$18.16Nov 17, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by March 31?$24.47Nov 15, 00:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Nov 15, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$24.47Nov 14, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?$20.01Nov 14, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$20.01Nov 14, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$44.90Nov 14, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?$20.00Nov 14, 03:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?$64.89Nov 14, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYGOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31?$2.62Nov 8, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLZohran Mamdani Parlay$2.56Nov 7, 23:40 UTC
- TRADESELLZohran Mamdani Parlay$0.07Nov 7, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$14.61Nov 7, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYGOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31?$25.00Nov 7, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?$23.39Nov 3, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?$13.76Oct 23, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYZohran Mamdani Parlay$60.90Oct 23, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?$74.66Oct 23, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?$8.67Oct 23, 16:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 11, 21:23 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 17, 21:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.