Sugary-Mud
0x521ec36c52966b973cb7dbb3feade65d6821a47b
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
152
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$60.40
Win rate
3%
152 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 152- YES
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-14.98
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
1500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NONGSHIM RED FORCE
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
1008 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Trump kiss by May 31?
1006 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.43Jul 18, 22:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$26.50Jul 16, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$40.61Jul 16, 07:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$16.08Jul 15, 21:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$10.29Jul 14, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 14?$5.38Jul 14, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 14?$6.18Jul 14, 06:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$5.17Jul 12, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 12?$16.68Jul 12, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 12?$8.73Jul 12, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 12?$5.23Jul 12, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 12?$6.21Jul 12, 07:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 152 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
152 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $11.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 07:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 152 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.