Constant-Marathon
0x5249cef50cfcdc84d274e1ba61322f099d30669b
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$1.92
Total PnL
$-39.08
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.92
$0.92
- YES
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?
110 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
71 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2024$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?
56 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Fed emergency rate cut in August?
48 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2024$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?
36 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in August?
26 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US GDP declines in Q3 2024?
23 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2024$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
U.S. Recession in 2024?
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?$1.00Sep 22, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?$1.00Sep 22, 06:20 UTC
- REDEEMFed rate cut by September meeting?$1.89Sep 22, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by September meeting?$1.00Jul 16, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$1.00Jul 16, 03:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$0.55Jul 16, 03:55 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above $2,400 on June 24?$1.95Jul 16, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above $2,400 on June 24?$1.00Jun 24, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.00Jun 24, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?$1.00Jun 24, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$0.68Jun 24, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$2.08Jun 24, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$1.00May 21, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?$1.00May 21, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$1.00May 21, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? $1.72May 21, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$1.75May 21, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? $0.00May 21, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMKamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?$0.00Jan 16, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$1.00Dec 3, 05:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 03:32 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 22, 06:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.