Guilty-Expertise
0x5271a2f21473fca1e8e39ec2e7103983cc56a29f
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.8K
Realised
$239.73
Win rate
63%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
468 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-47.56
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
388 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-192.18
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
295 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-27.38
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
295 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-144.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
266 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-132.89
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
251 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-24.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
236 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-118.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
221 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-110.74
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
221 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-110.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6PM ET
210 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-23.24
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.81Jun 4, 04:35 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$5.91Jun 4, 04:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$17.72Jun 4, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.45Mar 7, 03:55 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.00Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$2.82Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$2.82Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.96Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.45Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.99Mar 7, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$2.94Mar 7, 03:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.45Mar 7, 03:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.45Mar 7, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.49Mar 7, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$3.05Mar 7, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.99Mar 7, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.99Mar 7, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$2.94Mar 7, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$3.55Mar 7, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$4.62Mar 7, 03:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
84/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
41 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 7, 03:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 04:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.