Ripe-Arrow
0x527330cea3f8deb78aeccea2f18c753464fe16de
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-920.56
Realised
$138.50
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
10081 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-111.06
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
2601 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
2200 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-198.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
1833 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
1487 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-45.93
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1000 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
956 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-95.50
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
909 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
611 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.63Jun 27, 02:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $22.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 11:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.