Chief-Conservation
0x52a17584eab3c45ad73c15d271b600a3cb9a7833
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-95.4K
Realised
$-20.6K
Win rate
2%
88 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on October 8?
24000 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 8, 2025$0.00
$-12.7K
- UNDER
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5
17893 shares @ 90.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-16.2K
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30?
8988 shares @ 33.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.0K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
7405 shares @ 74.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.5K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
4214 shares @ 85.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.6K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
3452 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.3K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
3362 shares @ 48.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?
3011 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
2914 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?
2906 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-560.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$6.74Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$5.14Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.41Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$8.82Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.42Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal leading at halftime? AND Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo?$29.36Jun 17, 16:09 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$7.54Jun 17, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$8.46Jun 16, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France vs. Senegal end in a draw?$8.49Jun 16, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Senegal end in a draw?$20.34Jun 16, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?$20.39Jun 16, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?$16.83Jun 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance leading at halftime?$16.62Jun 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$79.17Jun 16, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-06-16?$79.25Jun 16, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-06-16?$82.08Jun 16, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$82.17Jun 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$69.01Jun 16, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance leading at halftime?$68.86Jun 16, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance leading at halftime?$72.43Jun 16, 04:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 88 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
88 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $20.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 02:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 88 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.