Wallet digest

active

Activity score

47/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-137.14

Realised

$-23.87

Win rate

42%

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 39

DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
293 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.86
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
113 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
103 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-4.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?
36 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-16.67
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
36 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.03Jul 5, 12:09 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.14Jul 5, 12:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$2.04Jul 5, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$0.00Jul 5, 12:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.07Jul 5, 12:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$0.99Jul 5, 12:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.01Jul 5, 12:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.06Jul 5, 12:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.01Jul 5, 12:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$0.89Jul 5, 12:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$2.09Jul 5, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$2.06Jul 5, 11:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$4.00Jul 5, 11:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$2.07Jul 5, 11:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$2.07Jul 5, 11:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$3.77Jul 5, 11:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$2.07Jul 5, 11:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$2.02Jul 4, 21:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$0.28Jul 4, 21:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.03Jul 4, 20:59 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

36/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

42% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry36 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $2.18
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 04:23 UTC
Last active: Jul 5, 12:09 UTC
Win rate sample: 12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:31:23 UTC·src:Polymarket Data