Scratchy-Banquette
0x530bcace3b65e5a5d0338629376b30013d6ab3bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
81
Open notional
$4.23
Total PnL
$-276.35
Realised
$-6.94
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 30?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$4.23
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 24?
667 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 24?
667 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 24?
667 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.24
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
56 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
37 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.69
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 30?$4.29Jul 29, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 30?$4.54Jul 29, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on July 30?$4.63Jul 29, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?$4.64Jul 29, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?$4.53Jul 29, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$1.69Jul 29, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$1.39Jul 29, 04:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 29?$4.74Jul 29, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 29?$4.76Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 29?$4.64Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$0.69Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$1.52Jul 28, 21:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$2.16Jul 28, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.01Jul 28, 21:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$1.30Jul 28, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$1.52Jul 28, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$0.94Jul 28, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$1.39Jul 28, 20:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$4.80Jul 28, 20:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.