Wallet digest

active

Activity score

75/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$5.4K

Total PnL

$-16.2K

Realised

$-2.1K

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

OVER 3.5
Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5
7335 shares @ 75.5¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$5.4K
$-187.14
BEN SHELTON
Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton
11905 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-10.0K
GRIGOR DIMITROV
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery
5607 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026
$0.00
$-3.8K
YES
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?
878 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-87.76

Recent activity

TRADEBUYTaylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5$5.6KJul 8, 07:11 UTC
REDEEMWimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik$5.6KJul 6, 19:22 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$5.89Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik$3.8KJul 5, 22:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery$3.8KJul 5, 22:11 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$13.23Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMCanada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$28.0KJul 4, 19:19 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$28.80Jul 4, 11:39 UTC
TRADEBUYCanada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$20.6KJul 4, 10:44 UTC
REDEEMColombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance$20.6KJul 4, 03:49 UTC
TRADEBUYColombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance$17.0KJul 3, 20:56 UTC
REDEEMWimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael Zheng$17.0KJul 3, 20:51 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Michael Zheng$14.2KJul 3, 18:36 UTC
TRADESELLWimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev$14.2KJul 3, 16:09 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev$10.7KJul 3, 16:02 UTC
TRADESELLWimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak Djokovic$8.4KJul 3, 15:59 UTC
TRADESELLWimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev$2.3KJul 3, 15:59 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev$6.2KJul 3, 12:29 UTC
TRADEBUYWimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak Djokovic$7.3KJul 3, 12:29 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$4.04Jul 3, 00:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

100%

Sample

limited

3 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

$12.3K · 39% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?39% of recorded volume$12.3K Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton32% of recorded volume$10.0K Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?30% of recorded volume$9.4K

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry25 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk97 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $10.7K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 22, 18:43 UTC
Last active: Jul 8, 07:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:15:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data