Conventional-Watcher
0x5321bbda6aa13663560a10cc763c3fbaac4ceea9
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-864.88
Realised
$-3.85
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 16-22?
4041 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-293.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
1180 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
393 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-35.12
- UP
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 10PM ET
334 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-72.47
- YES
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.16
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 25?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
196 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - December 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
178 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-99.60
- YES
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4PM ET
152 shares @ 75.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-114.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?$6.30Dec 31, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?$5.10Dec 31, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?$4.47Dec 31, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLLighter Airdrop on December 31?$9.46Dec 30, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLLighter Airdrop on December 30?$6.41Dec 30, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter Airdrop on December 28?$1.16Dec 29, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?$0.15Dec 29, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLLighter Airdrop on December 28?$0.11Dec 29, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?$0.34Dec 29, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?$0.56Dec 29, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?$0.73Dec 27, 18:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in January 2026?$0.88Dec 27, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in January 2026?$0.80Dec 27, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in January 2026?$0.50Dec 27, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?$0.78Dec 27, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026?$0.88Dec 27, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in January 2026?$0.62Dec 27, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in January 2026?$0.30Dec 27, 08:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in January 2026?$0.38Dec 27, 08:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in January 2026?$0.80Dec 27, 08:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $4.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 26, 03:32 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 31, 00:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.