Serious-Affidavit
0x5332844ed898946d3a841ab927ed8714a39a8af4
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-384.50
Realised
$-3.26
Win rate
3%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
888 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.78
- YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?
188 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-20.21
- YES
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
108 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-21.33
- YES
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
88 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-12.54
- YES
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals
88 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-11.44
- YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?
88 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-7.92
- YES
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?
78 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.80
- YES
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals
70 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-20.50
- YES
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals
66 shares @ 34.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-22.95
- YES
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
56 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-12.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$13.08Jul 19, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5$2.79Jul 19, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5$3.44Jul 19, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5$0.61Jul 19, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5$3.80Jul 19, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$9.76Jul 18, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$8.10Jul 18, 20:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Jul 18, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Jul 18, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$8.43Jul 18, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$5.19Jul 18, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$9.20Jul 18, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$3.14Jul 18, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$8.07Jul 18, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$88.00Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$22.82Jul 15, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 1+ goals$10.00Jul 14, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 1+ goals$10.84Jul 14, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Draw at halftime?$7.28Jul 14, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-14?$22.19Jul 14, 19:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
30 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $9.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 20:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 21:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.