0x534269d9c7b8b51ca49526d509394633495eb979
0x534269d9c7b8b51ca49526d509394633495eb979
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$16.52
Total PnL
$0.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.20
$0.91
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.86
$0.57
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$2.71
$0.41
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
3 shares @ 74.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.31
$0.02
- YES
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of August 17 2026?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$2.12
$-0.17
- YES
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 17 2026?
4 shares @ 55.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.92
$-0.37
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 63.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.42
$-0.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$2.29Aug 17, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of August 17 2026?$2.31Aug 17, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of August 17 2026?$2.33Aug 17, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York?$2.94Aug 15, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York?$3.52Aug 15, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of August 10 2026?$3.23Aug 14, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York?$2.32Aug 14, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York?$2.31Aug 14, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$2.29Aug 13, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$3.01Aug 13, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.63Aug 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.29Aug 11, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 Week of August 10 2026?$2.32Aug 11, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?$0.00Aug 11, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMSPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?$0.00Aug 11, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?$0.00Aug 11, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?$0.00Aug 11, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?$0.00Aug 11, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?$5.45Aug 11, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?$2.32Aug 5, 10:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $2.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 08:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 12:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.