0x536351b41b12e282f0f9c61b908526c77174f46b
0x536351b41b12e282f0f9c61b908526c77174f46b
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-573.54
Realised
$-9.31
Win rate
35%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 8?
212 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.96
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
102 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 8?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
93 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.79
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
77 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.05
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
51 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
50 shares @ 38.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.17
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
47 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.78
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
44 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-17.48
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?$6.67Jul 23, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?$7.84Jul 16, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?$4.00Jul 15, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?$4.10Jul 15, 06:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 13?$5.00Jul 14, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 14?$1.26Jul 13, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 14?$1.26Jul 13, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 14?$2.08Jul 13, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 12?$5.00Jul 13, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 13?$1.81Jul 13, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 13?$2.03Jul 13, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on July 13?$1.96Jul 13, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 13?$2.00Jul 13, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 13?$1.81Jul 13, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 13?$1.88Jul 13, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 13?$1.92Jul 13, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 12?$1.86Jul 12, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 12?$1.38Jul 12, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 12?$1.50Jul 12, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 12?$1.30Jul 12, 00:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
35% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 06:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 12:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.