Shallow-Brewer
0x53685989c332366675257535f28abd6d17782d62
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$533.06
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$118.62
Win rate
94%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?
301 shares @ 17.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$301.28
$247.78
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 29?
128 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$128.13
$78.13
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 30?
310 shares @ 16.1¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$38.74
$-11.25
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 30?
135 shares @ 18.5¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$24.29
$-0.71
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 29?
116 shares @ 21.6¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$22.54
$-2.47
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?
417 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$16.67
$-8.33
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?
333 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.00
$-49.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?
833 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.42
$-24.58
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6?
7500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on April 30?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 29?$31.58Jul 29, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 30?$2.92Jul 29, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 31?$45.70Jul 29, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 30?$19.20Jul 29, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 31?$0.42Jul 29, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 30?$7.03Jul 29, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 31?$5.17Jul 29, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$5.92Jul 29, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 30?$6.48Jul 29, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 30?$18.48Jul 29, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 30?$1.32Jul 29, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 30?$0.06Jul 29, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on July 31?$1.21Jul 29, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 30?$2.35Jul 29, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 31?$1.91Jul 29, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?$0.40Jul 29, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?$24.60Jul 29, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 30?$0.28Jul 29, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 28?$81.00Jul 29, 05:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $7.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 15:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.