Smug-Brief-Tilt
0x537147e8e687cbc0fb432656daced7c88e1a7efb
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-548.99
Realised
$-19.53
Win rate
0%
88 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2PM ET
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
122 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-49.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
98 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
61 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
39 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
30 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-14.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
29 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
22 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$3.44Aug 12, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$0.12Jun 24, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$3.11Jun 24, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.59Jun 17, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$2.47Jun 17, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$2.65Jun 17, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.46Jun 16, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$4.08Jun 16, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$1.25Jun 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$4.56Jun 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.84Jun 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$0.96Jun 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.71Jun 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$9.47Jun 16, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.04Jun 16, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$4.76Jun 16, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.04Jun 16, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.04Jun 16, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.04Jun 16, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.04Jun 16, 08:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
66/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 88 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
88 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 14:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 14:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 88 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.