Skeletal-Humidity
0x53e1ebe28d8b9f02b7ac94778d5273913b6ef420
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$238.57
Total PnL
$-35.7K
Realised
$583.45
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- UP
XRP Up or Down - July 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
186 shares @ 53.7¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$96.77
$-3.23
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 31?
78 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$78.17
$-0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 31?
27 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.59
$11.96
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 31?
325 shares @ 50.9¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.14
$-144.53
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 1?
23 shares @ 64.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$11.50
$-3.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?
110 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.40
$-3.30
- UNDER
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5
4351 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-416.08
- UNDER
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5
3843 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-499.56
- GERMANY
Spread: Germany (-2.5)
3820 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-878.99
- UNDER
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5
3800 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-798.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$25.76Jul 31, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$25.80Jul 31, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$25.82Jul 31, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$25.85Jul 31, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 31?$78.22Jul 31, 16:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 31?$25.70Jul 31, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 31?$19.90Jul 31, 15:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31?$19.50Jul 31, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.13Jul 31, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.14Jul 31, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.14Jul 31, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.15Jul 31, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?$0.56Jul 31, 14:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $8.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 16:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 19:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.