Grounded-Vase
0x53f8d598e00823ce670d4ae4adcb09e24e7cd083
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$4.19
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
679 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-56.55
- YES
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?
678 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
672 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.98
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
538 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
478 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-14.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$5.76Jul 20, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$1.04Jul 20, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$6.86Jul 20, 12:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$12.00Jul 20, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$7.05Jul 20, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$3.52Jul 20, 12:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$8.56Jul 20, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$6.68Jul 20, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$6.97Jul 20, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$5.50Jul 20, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$1.06Jul 20, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$3.01Jul 20, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$2.73Jul 20, 11:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$22.50Jul 20, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$10.29Jul 20, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$9.87Jul 20, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.80Jul 20, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$6.39Jul 20, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.80Jul 20, 09:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 11:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 12:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.