Normal-Fault
0x53fd058b41b73c2c6c3ff82f39ac42f7bb867e7e
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-432.35
Realised
$96.21
Win rate
86%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 25?
600 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15?
500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15?
500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 25?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on April 25?
400 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4?
341 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 3?
340 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12?
300 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17?
300 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 17?
300 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-8.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26?$7.27Jun 26, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26?$35.73Jun 26, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24?$2.00Jun 23, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?$0.64Jun 23, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?$0.20Jun 23, 03:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24?$1.00Jun 23, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?$0.04Jun 23, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?$0.66Jun 23, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?$0.13Jun 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?$0.01Jun 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24?$2.92Jun 23, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$0.50Jun 20, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$1.00Jun 20, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$0.51Jun 20, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$0.99Jun 20, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.70Jun 20, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$2.07Jun 20, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.93Jun 20, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?$1.40Jun 19, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?$1.60Jun 19, 04:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 17:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 08:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.