0x54190e827bcb134ed92362f7037996d9de3b53e3
0x54190e827bcb134ed92362f7037996d9de3b53e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$20.64
Total PnL
$-897.72
Realised
$-2.11
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 6?
44 shares @ 8.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$5.11
$1.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 6?
24 shares @ 16.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$5.06
$1.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 7?
19 shares @ 20.2¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$3.77
$-0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 7?
32 shares @ 11.8¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.66
$-2.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 6?
32 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.46
$-0.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 6?
15 shares @ 25.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 6?
49 shares @ 4.1¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.71
$-1.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 6?
24 shares @ 8.2¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.54
$-1.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 7?
22 shares @ 18.4¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.48
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 6?
31 shares @ 6.5¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.45
$-1.55
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$10.00Jul 6, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$10.00Jul 6, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$9.90Jul 6, 05:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$10.00Jul 6, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$5.33Jul 6, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$5.17Jul 6, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$5.17Jul 6, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$5.17Jul 6, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$5.17Jul 6, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$5.17Jul 6, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$5.17Jul 6, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$10.00Jul 6, 03:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 7?$3.59Jul 6, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 7?$1.99Jul 6, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 7?$2.00Jul 6, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 7?$1.97Jul 6, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 7?$0.39Jul 6, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 6?$4.13Jul 5, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 5?$0.25Jul 5, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 5?$1.00Jul 5, 20:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 04:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 06:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.