Faithful-Aspect-Adaptation
0x544d0bcce7af81ee94b295970dc071f0d8cb1eca
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$65.87
Total PnL
$-254.05
Realised
$-13.01
Win rate
0%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
77 shares @ 32.5¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$23.06
$-1.94
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?
24 shares @ 96.2¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$20.56
$-2.99
- YES
Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?
43 shares @ 23.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.87
$0.87
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down on August 22?
215 shares @ 4.7¢·now 3.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$6.45
$-3.55
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 23?
5 shares @ 99.6¢·now 97.9¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$4.74
$-0.08
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 22?
393 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.20
$-0.85
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
355 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.00
$-7.28
- ALEXIS GALARNEAU
Quebec City: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexis Galarneau
326 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- THIAGO AGUSTIN TIRANTE
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Arthur Fils
323 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- ALAN MAGADAN
Cancun: Alan Magadan vs Coleman Wong
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$0.24Aug 22, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$5.06Aug 22, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$0.31Aug 22, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$5.06Aug 22, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$0.13Aug 22, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$5.06Aug 22, 13:38 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$7.83Aug 22, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 23?$4.87Aug 22, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$4.86Aug 22, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$4.86Aug 22, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 22?$1.11Aug 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.81Aug 22, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 22, 6AM ET$3.63Aug 22, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?$5.19Aug 22, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?$0.40Aug 22, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?$0.09Aug 22, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?$0.02Aug 22, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?$0.10Aug 22, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?$4.61Aug 22, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 22?$4.07Aug 22, 10:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
37 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 21, 17:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 14:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.