Cheery-Radiator
0x54626d33e11a5b228cc7d1fdde8815cc793572da
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
108
Open notional
$20.28
Total PnL
$-172.53
Realised
$21.94
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 108- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 8?
6 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$6.00
$2.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?
5 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$5.00
$3.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$5.00
$2.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9?
4 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$4.28
$2.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 10?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on March 10?
19 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 14?
12 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on May 21?
12 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.24
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 13?
12 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 27?$0.18May 25, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on May 25?$0.30May 25, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 25?$0.25May 24, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 25?$0.25May 24, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 23?$0.24May 22, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 25?$0.26May 22, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 25?$0.50May 22, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 25?$1.00May 22, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on May 23?$0.24May 21, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 24?$0.24May 21, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on May 22?$0.49May 20, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on May 22?$0.11May 20, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 21?$0.17May 19, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 21?$0.07May 19, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or below on May 21?$0.24May 19, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C or below on May 20?$0.13May 19, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C or below on May 20?$0.17May 19, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 19?$0.85May 17, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 19?$0.08May 17, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17?$0.18May 17, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 08:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 15:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.