Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-237.91

Realised

$-20.15

Win rate

64 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 64

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
24 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
23 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
18 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
16 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
16 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
UP
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
16 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
16 shares @ 51.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
15 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
13 shares @ 37.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$0.00Jul 2, 18:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$8.00Jul 2, 18:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$4.14Jul 2, 18:40 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 15:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$10.26Jul 2, 15:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$4.17Jul 2, 15:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$4.18Jul 2, 15:46 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$0.00Jul 2, 12:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$12.77Jul 2, 12:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$6.22Jul 2, 12:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$4.18Jul 2, 12:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$4.16Jul 2, 12:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$4.19Jul 1, 19:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 15:38 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$8.00Jul 1, 15:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$4.22Jul 1, 15:30 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.00Jun 30, 17:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$5.21Jun 30, 17:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$0.00Jun 30, 16:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$5.19Jun 30, 15:26 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 64 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

64 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry83 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 29
Avg trade size: $5.61
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 27, 12:45 UTC
Last active: Jul 2, 18:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 64 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:16:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data