Compassionate-Nasal-Crazy
0x54c6725136cc1db91603941d49506085e428e5c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$92.88
Total PnL
$-70.19
Realised
$80.26
Win rate
44%
126 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting?
45 shares @ 20.8¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.16
$-2.17
- YES
Did a ground support equipment failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?
18 shares @ 4.0¢·now 37.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.79
$6.07
- YES
Did an engine failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?
13 shares @ 9.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.33
$4.19
- NO
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027?
8 shares @ 54.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$5.21
$1.07
- NO
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$5.17
$3.00
- YES
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?
12 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.11
$-0.00
- YES
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?
5 shares @ 2.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$5.09
$4.99
- YES
Will Micron (MU) close above $920 end of June?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$1.95
- YES
Did another cause lead to the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?
22 shares @ 7.0¢·now 22.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.85
$3.31
- YES
Will Francisco Lindor win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?
50 shares @ 0.4¢·now 9.4¢·exp Nov 13, 2026$4.72
$4.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?$3.74Jul 22, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?$0.21Jul 22, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.40Jul 22, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.50Jul 22, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026?$0.19Jul 22, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belal Muhammad be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 22, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belal Muhammad be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 22, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?$0.09Jul 22, 01:26 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.59Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$2.75Jul 22, 00:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.17Jul 22, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$0.05Jul 21, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.84Jul 21, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.15Jul 21, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.10Jul 21, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.16Jul 21, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.64Jul 21, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.03Jul 21, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.25Jul 21, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.09Jul 21, 22:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 126 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
126 closed markets, 44% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 21:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 126 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.