Winged-Layer
0x54dbe14d342f129be293df83a12515065b6c0174
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$141.34
Win rate
53%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- NO
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?
449 shares @ 76.2¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$284.83
$-56.82
- NO
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?
251 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$232.18
$-1.25
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?
1028 shares @ 13.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$195.38
$61.69
- YES
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?
290 shares @ 34.8¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$175.50
$74.57
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
182 shares @ 57.6¢·now 80.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$146.57
$41.89
- NO
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
429 shares @ 26.9¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$124.41
$9.12
- NO
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?
318 shares @ 31.8¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$114.34
$13.29
- NO
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?
90 shares @ 82.5¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$71.99
$-2.30
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?
556 shares @ 11.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$69.53
$8.34
- YES
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?
131 shares @ 19.1¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$50.40
$25.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-07-03?$12.32Jul 3, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?$118.66Jul 3, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$63.36Jul 3, 19:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?$128.97Jul 3, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?$41.05Jul 3, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?$0.10Jul 2, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?$9.99Jul 2, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?$30.98Jul 2, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?$93.63Jul 2, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?$103.80Jul 2, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?$184.28Jul 2, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$1.39Jul 1, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$1.43Jul 1, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$11.06Jul 1, 05:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$5.54Jul 1, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$8.16Jul 1, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$115.98Jul 1, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros win the CO-01 Democratic primary by 10–15%?$44.79Jun 30, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?$55.58Jun 30, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$101.54Jun 30, 20:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $100.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 21:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 19:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.