Winged-Layer
0x54dbe14d342f129be293df83a12515065b6c0174
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-712.92
Realised
$520.54
Win rate
33%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?
298 shares @ 52.9¢·now 68.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$203.51
$46.06
- YES
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by December 31?
166 shares @ 53.7¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$94.77
$5.38
- YES
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
248 shares @ 17.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$82.97
$40.87
- YES
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?
86 shares @ 39.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$81.95
$48.22
- YES
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?
279 shares @ 15.7¢·now 27.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$75.42
$31.70
- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?
110 shares @ 63.4¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$74.54
$4.98
- NO
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
104 shares @ 26.9¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$71.76
$43.81
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?
235 shares @ 30.6¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$60.03
$-11.98
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?
584 shares @ 13.5¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$46.71
$-32.20
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
165 shares @ 12.6¢·now 22.1¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$36.45
$15.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,017,000 and $1,053,000 on September 30?$10.76Aug 16, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?$120.00Aug 14, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?$95.00Aug 14, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?$83.49Aug 8, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?$3.04Aug 8, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?$7.64Aug 8, 05:04 UTC
- REWARD$3.29Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?$70.58Aug 7, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by July 31?$6.00Aug 1, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$556.22Aug 1, 19:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $55B by July 31?$90.60Aug 1, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$4.23Aug 1, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?$18.35Jul 31, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$20.00Jul 28, 10:05 UTC
- REWARD$1.38Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.43Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$20.40Jul 23, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?$212.00Jul 23, 01:08 UTC
- REWARD$1.96Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by December 31?$140.00Jul 22, 21:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $37.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 17:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.