0x5504fb641f91a55fc2afe88c4dc33a644855665d
0x5504fb641f91a55fc2afe88c4dc33a644855665d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$92.68
Total PnL
$-35.63
Realised
$-18.02
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 22?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$17.90
$3.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 23?
28 shares @ 65.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.36
$-0.84
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 23?
22 shares @ 74.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$15.07
$-1.21
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 23?
21 shares @ 68.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$14.80
$0.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 22?
26 shares @ 55.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$14.04
$-0.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 23?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$13.50
$-1.10
- YES
Will FC Nordsjælland vs. Silkeborg IF end in a draw?
33 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-7.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 11?
26 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-2.88
- YES
Will CD Tondela vs. FC Porto end in a draw?
18 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.67
- YES
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-12-07?
16 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 22?$14.80Jul 21, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 22?$14.62Jul 21, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 23?$14.51Jul 21, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 23?$14.80Jul 21, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 23?$16.49Jul 21, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 23?$18.52Jul 21, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$85.14Jul 21, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$5.00Jul 21, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$4.90Jul 21, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$30.02Jul 21, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$18.87Jul 21, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 21?$0.57Jul 21, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?$23.34Jul 19, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?$42.68Jul 18, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$39.06Jul 10, 02:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?$15.98Jul 7, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?$11.04Jul 7, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 25?$0.00Mar 28, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 25?$3.05Mar 25, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 25?$4.27Mar 25, 10:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $16.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 23:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.