0x55332464a4d4fae19956d740dddff103918251ba
0x55332464a4d4fae19956d740dddff103918251ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$100.93
Total PnL
$-523.90
Realised
$407.72
Win rate
65%
143 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
1195 shares @ 0.3¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$18.52
$14.93
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
1399 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.09
$6.30
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%?
1300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$7.15
$3.25
- YES
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
1595 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$5.58
$2.39
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?
956 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.26
$1.43
- YES
Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
894 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$4.92
$3.13
- YES
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
975 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$4.39
$0.49
- YES
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
795 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.37
$-1.59
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
711 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.27
$-0.09
- YES
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
1142 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.00
$1.71
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.09Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29?$0.00Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 30?$0.30Jul 29, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 29?$2.79Jul 29, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 29?$5.00Jul 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?$4.39Jul 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 29?$2.10Jul 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 29?$0.75Jul 29, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 29?$0.24Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$0.49Jul 29, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.09Jul 29, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 30?$0.09Jul 29, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$0.01Jul 29, 01:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 143 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
143 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 01:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 143 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.