0x55332464a4d4fae19956d740dddff103918251ba
0x55332464a4d4fae19956d740dddff103918251ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$102.28
Total PnL
$-539.88
Realised
$386.17
Win rate
65%
142 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
1195 shares @ 0.3¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$18.52
$14.93
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
1666 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$9.16
$4.16
- YES
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
1142 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.14
$6.85
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
1399 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.39
$5.60
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%?
1300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$7.15
$3.25
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?
956 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.74
$1.91
- YES
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
1595 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$5.58
$2.39
- YES
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
975 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$4.39
$0.49
- YES
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
795 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.37
$-1.59
- YES
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
1578 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$3.94
$-1.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 29?$1.51Jul 28, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3DMAX Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?$1.69Jul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$8.45Jul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 29?$0.23Jul 28, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 29?$2.89Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.03Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$0.55Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$4.93Jul 28, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.12Jul 28, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or below on July 29?$0.96Jul 28, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 29?$1.31Jul 28, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$2.64Jul 28, 23:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 29?$1.87Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or below on July 29?$0.76Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 29?$0.53Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 29?$0.10Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$2.80Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 30?$1.03Jul 28, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 29?$0.12Jul 28, 23:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 142 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
142 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 142 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.