Noisy-Willingness
0x555d674718a43e2896da976ee44202fbf49e5582
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-19.6K
Realised
$555.07
Win rate
82%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
3001 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-800.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
2269 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-190.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
1104 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-432.14
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
1007 shares @ 41.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-419.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
992 shares @ 29.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-290.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
946 shares @ 63.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-600.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
869 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-139.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
857 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
824 shares @ 30.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-250.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$23.50Jul 15, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$24.14Jul 14, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$14.41Jul 14, 15:56 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$14.36Jul 13, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$52.17Jul 12, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$461.16Jul 12, 13:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$0.00Jul 12, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$509.48Jul 12, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$416.57Jul 12, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$21.39Jul 12, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$174.37Jul 12, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$175.38Jul 12, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$83.07Jul 12, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$369.62Jul 12, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$74.82Jul 12, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$157.16Jul 12, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$536.22Jul 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$29.09Jul 12, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$348.51Jul 12, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$367.44Jul 12, 13:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $223.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 03:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.