Hoarse-Nationality
0x557a7475591895ca7bf1d725a2b1946a4f0bd8b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
89
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$0.04
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- IGOR RIBEIRO MARCONDES
Santiago: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk say "Tesla" during the August 6 AMA?
953 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2025$0.00
$-714.70
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- ATHLETICS
Athletics vs. Nationals
265 shares @ 63.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2025$0.00
$-168.16
- YES
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?
184 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-145.47
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
135 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump mention "South Park" by Sunday?
130 shares @ 78.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2025$0.00
$-102.40
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
109 shares @ 92.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-101.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$12.24Jun 18, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$10.21Jun 18, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$20.63Jun 18, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$4.30Jun 18, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$4.02Jun 18, 21:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$2.70Jun 18, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$4.09Jun 18, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$21.05Jun 18, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$2.04Jun 18, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$20.07Jun 18, 21:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$20.20Jun 18, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$20.01Jun 18, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19?$24.40Jun 18, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19?$25.05Jun 18, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$0.02Jun 18, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$21.27Jun 18, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$20.10Jun 18, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.03Jun 18, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.04Jun 18, 21:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$2.08Jun 18, 21:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $6.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 19:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 22:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.