Mealy-Disregard
0x557c25a6e0fe4a4eb2e007c8edcc4202e75be7f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$217.06
Total PnL
$-271.61
Realised
$47.84
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?
63 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$62.15
$1.67
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?
60 shares @ 86.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$57.03
$5.43
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
40 shares @ 86.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$37.40
$3.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
33 shares @ 86.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$32.31
$3.93
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of August 17 2026?
32 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$28.18
$0.48
- CAVALIERS
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
133 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-74.48
- OVER
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5
100 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-50.50
- ARGENTINA
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
90 shares @ 41.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-37.05
- FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic
80 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-43.20
- UNDER
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
60 shares @ 55.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-33.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of August 17 2026?$27.84Aug 17, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$16.64Aug 17, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?$60.58Aug 9, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?$28.54Aug 9, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?$52.11Aug 9, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$34.40Aug 9, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$12.27Aug 9, 11:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$46.00Aug 7, 09:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$14.00Aug 1, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?$44.00Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 31?$34.89Jul 31, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 30?$60.00Jul 30, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 31?$8.90Jul 30, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 31?$9.00Jul 30, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 31?$9.00Jul 30, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 31?$4.53Jul 30, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?$30.00Jul 30, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 30?$55.51Jul 29, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$44.60Jul 29, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 29, 03:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $28.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 18:37 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 14:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.