Discrete-Surround
0x5591f88b7ee99e7c559f13b9adb54986e59d8801
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$8.13
Total PnL
$-5.08
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- GROUND ZERO
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Time Waves (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group B
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$1.03
$0.02
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of August 3 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- NO
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$1.01
$-0.00
- YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on August 5?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- YES
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by August 7?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- NO
Will 240 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will China's CPI increase by at least 1.3% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 41.0 on January 16, 2026?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the December meeting?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-0.73
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 in July?$0.00Aug 5, 10:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?$0.00Aug 5, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by August 7?$2.97Aug 5, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by August 7?$4.00Aug 5, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's CPI increase by at least 1.3% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?$1.00Aug 5, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Time Waves (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Group B$1.01Aug 5, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?$1.01Aug 5, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 240 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?$1.00Aug 5, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$8.97Aug 5, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$10.00Aug 5, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on August 5?$5.97Aug 5, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on August 5?$7.00Aug 5, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 in July?$1.05Aug 5, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?$1.28Aug 5, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of August 3 2026?$8.97Aug 5, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of August 3 2026?$10.00Aug 5, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 in July?$9.94Jul 25, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?$1.06Jul 25, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 in July?$11.00Jul 25, 18:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 18?$1.01Jul 4, 11:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $6.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 11:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 10:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.