Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-7.5K

Realised

$-379.51

Win rate

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
876 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026
$0.00
$-39.49
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
665 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-354.54
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
590 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-208.98
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
584 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026
$0.00
$-4.44
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
543 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-104.29
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
427 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-71.68
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
414 shares @ 33.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-138.95
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
377 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-104.70
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
369 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026
$0.00
$-36.08
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
364 shares @ 34.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-125.22

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.33Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.66Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.19Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$2.40Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$9.44Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$8.17Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$3.38Aug 19, 19:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$3.88Aug 19, 15:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$6.16Aug 19, 15:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$12.63Aug 19, 15:30 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$48.80Aug 19, 14:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$2.94Aug 19, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$2.89Aug 19, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$7.39Aug 19, 14:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.53Aug 19, 08:56 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$11.20Aug 19, 08:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$7.03Aug 19, 08:22 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$10.00Aug 19, 02:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$8.64Aug 19, 02:21 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$3.62Aug 19, 00:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $5.60
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 18, 00:04 UTC
Last active: Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:56:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data