Authorized-Ephemeris-Housing
0x563d44e08b3b844b1d3cba75127c8e11ba7c94ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-264.11
Realised
$-29.45
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- OVER
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5
47 shares @ 58.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-27.87
- OVER
Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5
36 shares @ 59.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-21.36
- HAWKS
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
35 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-20.66
- OVER
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5
30 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.18
- OVER
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
28 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-17.14
- UNDER
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
24 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-12.93
- OVER
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
22 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-12.10
- UNDER
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5
20 shares @ 52.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.36
- YES
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
17 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-9.74
- RAPTORS
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
17 shares @ 53.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.85
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)$10.17Jul 18, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies$0.06Jul 4, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies$2.20Jul 4, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMSeattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5$6.29Jul 3, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies$9.87Jul 2, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners$26.48Jul 1, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners$22.35Jul 1, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies$27.29Jun 29, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies$14.12Jun 29, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays$24.30Jun 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays$12.33Jun 28, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5$9.00Jun 27, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5$4.41Jun 27, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres$2.59Jun 25, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5$13.11Jun 24, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)$1.19Jun 24, 01:36 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)$29.10Jun 23, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5$17.34Jun 23, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)$20.84Jun 22, 09:17 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)$24.60Jun 21, 05:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $11.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 05:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 19:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.